Look East

Former MP Bob Blizzard and political analyst Lewis Baston have published another very helpful contribution to the debate about how Labour in the East of England bounces back from last year’s terrible results. Their article, “How the east was lost…and how to win again” is published on Progressonline and is well worth a read.

Blizzard & Baston’s sobering analysis is very much on the mark although comparative analysis with results in the south east and south west suggest that Labour in the East of England outperformed their regional colleagues quite considerably.

Of the 35 constituencies Labour lost in these three regions in 2010, only ten would have returned to Labour if last month’s local election results had been replicated in a national poll. Of these ten seats all but two were in the eastern region (the others being Plymouth Sutton & Devonport and Stroud, both in the south west).

Swing to Labour

Stevena ge (11.8%)
Norwich South (10.0%)
Ipswich (8.2%)
Basildon South & Thurrock E (8.1%)
Harlow (7.5%)
Thurrock (7.1%)
Bedford (4.8%)
Waveney (3.0%)

Swing to Conservative

Great Yarmouth (2.7%)

Swing to Liberal Democrat

Watford (1.5%)

Although the council results in Harlow, Basildon and Norwich were poor, the swings achieved would have been sufficient to have retaken 3 parliamentary seats within those local authority boundaries.

As Blizzard and Baston acknowledge, the results in the east weren’t universally good, with the local election results in Great Yarmouth and Waveney recording swings to the Conservatives of 2.7% and 0.2% respectively. The swing away from Labour in Waveney came despite the fact that Labour gained eight council seats and denied the Conservatives control of the council.

Blizzard and Baston suggest “We still have to win the economic argument that our approach to deficit reduction was right and that ConDem policies are making things worse not better”. The problem, as they themselves acknowledge, is that the public’s views are now very polarised, with Tory voters very firmly blaming Labour for ‘ruining the economy'. This is the justification for their continued support for the Conservatives and explains why we failed to make the breakthrough we needed in the south last month.

Stuart King is Editor of Southern Front

Correction: An earlier version of this article listed the Waveney result as a 0.2% swing to the Conservatives. This was incorrect due to the use of inaccurate ward data. The actual result was a 3.0% swing to Labour, enough to win the seat back. Thanks to Bob Blizzard for the correct data.